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Archive for February, 2009

Marketing Is an Art, a Science AND a Dessert Topping

Posted by Greg on February 28, 2009

Before I delve into this post, I have a confession: I’m pretty much a financial illiterate. I went to business school, took accounting, finance and corporate finance, and understood enough to secure my Gentleman’s B. But when my finance-major classmates talked about buy-side, sell-side, debt instruments and the like, I nodded politely while having only the faintest clue of what it all meant.

In spite (or perhaps because) of that ignorance, I’ve been devouring articles on the financial crisis ever since it broke. Some of that may just be the same lurid fascination that causes people to slow down at traffic accidents, but I think it also may be due in part to the fact that, having been right in the middle of the last bubble, I’m intrigued by the similarities. For example, when former trader Noah Millman writes of constant-proportion debt obligation, or CPDOs:

The existence of such a ridiculous product should have been a wake-up call about just how divorced from reality the agencies were. And if they were out to lunch on something as straightforwardly absurd as the CPDO, how out to lunch were they on other products, ones that were far more significant to the markets and the economy, where the absurdity of their assumptions was less-obvious?

Despite the fact that I still don’t really understand how a CPDO worked, Millman’s account instantly took me back to 2000, when I was buying media and listening to advertising pitches from absolutely ridiculous businesses with revenue models that could never possibly work (I’m looking at you, AllAdvantage). Like Millman, I recognized at least some of the sillier excesses, but in retrospect, the sheer volume of absurdity should have led me to short all my stocks and run for the hills.

Similarly, reading this week’s Wired cover story on “The Formula That Killed Wall Street” helped drive home a marketing lesson I learned early in my career: Quantitative analysis is crucial, and most companies don’t do enough of it, but at the same time, it’s very easy to fool yourself into thinking that the numbers give you all the answers. Read the rest of this entry »

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‘What I Really Want to Do Is Consult …’

Posted by Greg on February 19, 2009

Businessweek’s B.L. Ochman (via Henry Copeland) makes a good point about all of the people trying to cash in on the social media boom:

Search the bios of Robert Scoble’s 56,838 Twitter followers using Tweepsearch (www.tweepsearch.com), an index of the bios of Twitter users, and you’ll find:

  • 4,273 Internet marketers
  • 1,652 social media marketers
  • 513 social media consultants
  • 272 social media strategists
  • 180 social media experts
  • 98 social media gurus
  • 58 Internet marketing gurus

How many of them have actually created a successful campaign for clients using social media tools? I bet you’d be hard-pressed to find half a dozen with real track records.

Pretty funny. I’m fairly confident that many of the various innovations that fall under the “social media” umbrella will end up transforming the way companies interact with their customers. But who gets rich off that transformation is a completely separate question.

I do, however, disagree with Ochman on one of her other supposed social-media myths: Read the rest of this entry »

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Investing In Digital: The Benefits Exist Even in a Recession

Posted by Dan Sachar on February 19, 2009

I wrote earlier that this Great Recession is an opportunity for marketers and even agencies themselves to invest in digital and to begin to transform their marketing efforts to become more cost-effective and targeted. Adage today features a perfect example: Marriott Hotels (despite otherwise poor results) generated over $2 million in bookings via their mobile site. And Marriott isn’t alone:

Marriott Mobile generated $2 million in gross revenue between its August 2008 launch and the end of the year. But revenue from mobile bookings in January was headed upward fairly quickly, the hotel chain told Ad Age.

Meanwhile, Omni Hotels’ mobile site has grown 85% in the past six months, and Hilton’s mobile channel has generated a 22% return on investment for the brand. Those kinds of numbers are bright spots in a tough time for hoteliers — and they show that even in recession, companies are willing to invest in and experiment with new media when the ROI is clear(emphasis mine).

To be fair, this is essentially an e-commerce play, where the transaction can occur online and the effects of ROI are measurable. But, then why not shift more marketing dollars online to complete the circle and measure the ROI from the first dollar spent through the last? That’s exactly what is starting to happen, according to Chris LaRose who direct’s Hilton’s website strategy:

“Where we’re seeing in general is a shift to … digital across the board. The rate of return that we’re seeing in online campaigns is much more favorable than what we’ve seen historically in print,”

Can’t say it much more clearly than that.

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CPC: Not the Answer

Posted by Greg on February 18, 2009

Businessweek’s Jeffrey Rayport thinks he has the answer to ineffective banner campaigns:

Some companies and ad networks sell advertising based on the number of times a person clicks on an ad, a so-called cost-per-click (CPC) basis, or on the number of times a person takes another action, such as making a purchase or filling out a form. This is known as a cost-per-action (CPA) basis. Turns out, sites that sell on a CPC or CPA basis are growing pricing power and overall revenue even as the online display ad market teeters on the precipice of a bottomless chasm.

Sounds easy, right? After all, as Rayport also points out, Google relies on CPC ads, and look how successful they’ve been.

In reality, Rayport doesn’t know what the hell he’s talking about. If every publisher switched their pricing structure to CPC, it wouldn’t do anything to change the effectiveness of advertising. To the extent that it did have any effect, it would be to change incentives in a way that could hurt publishers. Read the rest of this entry »

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More on Scale

Posted by Greg on February 17, 2009

I recently mentioned the importance of scale to advertisers. But it’s even more important (and more underrated) for publishers.

In the decade and a half since the birth of the commercial Internet, only two third-party advertising models have proved resilient. Search-engine marketing, as Dan has pointed out, has succeeded because of its effectiveness. Goto.com (which later became Overture,  was bought by Yahoo, and whose model was adopted by Google for its more-famous AdWords) figured out that turning search results over to the free market was an efficient way of producing relevant results that benefitted both the user and the advertiser (see, more stakeholder theory). Pay-per-click search advertising has almost single-handedly made Google the powerhouse it is today, though it is interesting to note that whereas AdWords (which places ads next to search results) has proved a successful revenue generator for Google, AdSense (which runs those same ads alongside targeted content on third-party sites) has been far less successful for publishers.

The second model that has withstood the test of time has lasted not because of its effectiveness but in spite of it. For years, we’ve been hearing about declining click-through rates on online banner ads, and also about how click-through is a poor metric on which to focus. In other words, banner ads are delivering the wrong thing, and they’re not even very good at that.

So why does the model persist? Because it’s scalable. Banner ads are a commodity, and commodity businesses require volume. There is simply no form of online advertising easier to set up than an untargeted banner campaign. Holy grails such as behavioral targeting or customized ad campaigns have never managed to break through; because they are complex and difficult to implement, they require committed, “smart” advertisers. But there aren’t enough smart advertisers to ensure a workable revenue model. You need the dumb ones as well.

The day may eventually come when banner advertising finally runs its course. But it won’t happen until a more effective, but equally scalable model is developed to supplant it.

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Something To This “What Would Google Do?” Thing…

Posted by Dan Sachar on February 13, 2009

I hate to hock a book that’s already being hocked everywhere, but it struck me while reading Greg’s post on the issue of “free,” that there may be something to Jeff Jarvis’ new thesis. Greg wrote about Skyblox and its free wi-fi model:

One intriguing example I recently heard about is Skyblox, which works with merchants in a neighborhood to offer free wi-fi to the merchants’ customers, then creates a portal that hotspot users have to go through featuring targeted local advertising. I don’t know enough about the business to say whether it’s going to work, but from a stakeholder perspective, they’re definitely taking the right approach. Customers get free wi-fi and relevant, targeted information about their neighborhood. Merchants get an advertising vehicle that outperforms ads in local alt-weeklies (which is what most of them have been relying on to date). Even indirect stakeholders benefit — by creating a local portal, Skyblox provides a collective good for the neighborhood.

So they create a product that benefits consumers, advertisers and themselves all at once. Where have we heard that before?
Read the rest of this entry »

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Free* (or, how to give away the store without giving away the store)

Posted by Greg on February 10, 2009

In an earlier post, I criticized Chris Anderson for eliding the problems of using free as a business tool. The reason this omission was such a crucial mistake was that comparing free-dependent business models that do work with those that don’t helps define the underlying principles.

The two main types of “free” Anderson discusses are the media model (e.g., broadcast TV and print) and freemium (giving away a base product for free and then upselling to a premium version). I’ll start with the media model, and address freemiums in a subsequent post.

Read the rest of this entry »

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Digital’s Biggest Hurdle: Scale

Posted by Greg on February 10, 2009

In response to Dan’s post, I think the biggest problem digital advertising has faced in claiming a bigger piece of marketers’ budgets is its inability to scale up. Yes, it’s more efficient, measurable, targeted and all those things. And certainly a startup such as Guyville would want to focus all its efforts online. But if you’re a large company looking to really move the needle on sales, there aren’t many options that can do the job better than an ad on primetime TV or a large print campaign in a national magazine.

It’s not that the Web doesn’t have a big enough audience. But there aren’t really any sites that aggregate that audience the same way that popular TV shows do. To cite two example, Facebook has a huge audience, but so far it has underwhelmed as an advertising platform. Google, meanwhile, has the audience and and an effective platform, but the ads are so targeted that it can be difficult to scale effectively.

That said, Dan is definitely right that now is the right time to shift ad dollars online. In a bad economy, gargantuan ad budgets will likely be pared down, and marketers will need to demonstrate ROI and prove themselves as revenue centers rather than cost centers. And unlike in the last recession, I think online marketing may have finally matured to the point where it can more effectively absorb ad dollars.

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Marketers & Ad Agencies: Time To Invest In Digital

Posted by Dan Sachar on February 10, 2009

If there is one thing that amazes me about this recession/depression and the digital space more than anything other, it’s the degree to which marketers and even some ad agencies are being short-sighted. Well, perhaps it shouldn’t amaze me, but I stand here proclaiming myself amazed nonetheless. This downturn provides an incredible opportunity for marketing to re-orient itself and invest in digital marketing.

Part of my “amazement” comes from my firm belief that digital is the core around which all marketing will revolve. But we’re clearly nowhere near that point yet. Digital marketing is still viewed by many marketers as an important, but supplementary outlet for their efforts. TV, print, in-store, etc, are still regarded as the core of marketing…and when budgets allow it, a small percentage is allocated to digital. I believe that this relationship will be flipped in a few years. That’s not to say that digital will have the largest budgets, but that every plan will begin with digital as its centerpiece when strategies are developed.

And why not? It’s the most measurable, impactful, targeted, and cost-effective marketing known to human-kind. Online retailers know this, and that’s why so many of them are actually increasing their investment online. For example:
Read the rest of this entry »

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Chris Anderson: A day late and a dollar short

Posted by Greg on February 5, 2009

As a regular reader of Chris Anderson’s blog, I generally have a good opinion of his writing. And though I haven’t read his first book, The Long Tail, I’ve heard good things about it (even if it did spawn the most annoyingly overused business catchphrase since The Tipping Point.) Plus, how can you not like a guy who gives PR spammers the smackdown they so richly deserve? So when I heard last year that Anderson was excerpting his next book, Free, as a cover story in Wired, I expected to read an intriguing argument.

Instead, I found his thesis to be shockingly naive. It wasn’t so much what he said — his analysis of how “free” fits into a business plan was actually pretty good — as what he didn’t. How could anyone explain the concept of “free” with barely a mention of the dangers it poses … just a few years after the dot-com bubble, a textbook example of those dangers? Similarly, how could he write “What the Web represents is the extension of the media [ie, newspapers, magazine and TV] business model to industries of all sorts” without acknowledging the fact that the “media business model” in all three of those sectors is in the midst of an existential crisis?

In short, what the article was missing was balance. Free is a valuable tool in business, but there are hazards in going too far (as happened in the dot-com bubble) or getting complacent (as happened with many print and broadcast outlets).

The good news is that, judging by his recent piece in the Wall Street Journal, Anderson seems to have finally figured this out. But he presents it as a revelation brought on by the current economic downturn: Read the rest of this entry »

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