Before I delve into this post, I have a confession: I’m pretty much a financial illiterate. I went to business school, took accounting, finance and corporate finance, and understood enough to secure my Gentleman’s B. But when my finance-major classmates talked about buy-side, sell-side, debt instruments and the like, I nodded politely while having only the faintest clue of what it all meant.
In spite (or perhaps because) of that ignorance, I’ve been devouring articles on the financial crisis ever since it broke. Some of that may just be the same lurid fascination that causes people to slow down at traffic accidents, but I think it also may be due in part to the fact that, having been right in the middle of the last bubble, I’m intrigued by the similarities. For example, when former trader Noah Millman writes of constant-proportion debt obligation, or CPDOs:
The existence of such a ridiculous product should have been a wake-up call about just how divorced from reality the agencies were. And if they were out to lunch on something as straightforwardly absurd as the CPDO, how out to lunch were they on other products, ones that were far more significant to the markets and the economy, where the absurdity of their assumptions was less-obvious?
Despite the fact that I still don’t really understand how a CPDO worked, Millman’s account instantly took me back to 2000, when I was buying media and listening to advertising pitches from absolutely ridiculous businesses with revenue models that could never possibly work (I’m looking at you, AllAdvantage). Like Millman, I recognized at least some of the sillier excesses, but in retrospect, the sheer volume of absurdity should have led me to short all my stocks and run for the hills.
Similarly, reading this week’s Wired cover story on “The Formula That Killed Wall Street” helped drive home a marketing lesson I learned early in my career: Quantitative analysis is crucial, and most companies don’t do enough of it, but at the same time, it’s very easy to fool yourself into thinking that the numbers give you all the answers. Read the rest of this entry »
I wrote earlier that this Great Recession is an opportunity for marketers and even agencies themselves to invest in digital and to begin to transform their marketing efforts to become more cost-effective and targeted. Adage today features a perfect example: Marriott Hotels (despite otherwise poor results)